دوره 33، شماره 66 - ( 1404 )
جلد 33 شماره 66 صفحات 183-141 |
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ebrahimi A, zandi F, aligholi M, rabiei M. The impact of economic shocks on the country's tax revenue using the DSGE method. J Tax Res 2025; 33 (66) :141-183
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2394-fa.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2394-fa.html
ابراهیمی علیرضا، زندی فاطمه، علیقلی منصوره، ربیعی مهناز. تاثیر تکانه های اقتصادی بر درآمد مالیاتی کشور با استفاده از روش تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. پژوهشنامه مالیات. 1404; 33 (66) :141-183
1- ، ali_ab90@yahoo.com
چکیده: (221 مشاهده)
یکی از مهمترین منابع درآمدی دولتها مالیاتستانی میباشد. در این ارتباط، تکانههای اقتصادی باتوجه نوع و منبع تولید تکانه می‌توانند درآمدهای مالیاتی را تحت تأثیر قرار دهند و به تبع آن آثار بعدی نیز بر دیگر متغیرهای اقتصادی ایجاد شود. بنابراین تحلیل آثار تکانههای اقتصادی بر درآمدهای مالیاتی و سیاستگذاری در راستای بهبود درآمدهای مالیاتی بر اساس نتایج آن، اهمیت بالایی دارد. بر این اساس، در این مطالعه تأثیر تکانههای اقتصادی بر درآمدهای مالیاتی در اقتصاد ایران با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بر مبنای نتایج تحقیق، اعمال تکانه مثبت قیمت نفت، با تأثیر بر افزایش ورود ارز به داخل وضعیت متغیرهای تولید داخلی و مصرف از کالاهای داخلی ابتدا بهبود مییابد، اما بعد از چند دوره، کاهش نرخ ارز و افزایش واردات و ایجاد بیماری هلندی، موجب تضعیف تولید داخلی و کاهش اشتغال و درآمد نیروی کار شده و بر این اساس درآمد مالیاتی دولت کاهش مییابد. همچنین تکانه مثبت به بهرهوری و تکانه منفی به نرخ سود یا سیاست پولی انبساطی نیز سبب افزایش تولید و اشتغال و افزایش درآمد نیروی کار شده و بر این اساس درآمد مالیاتی دولت افزایش مییابد.
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