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Showing 2 results for Business Cycles

Ebrahim Rezaei,
Volume 24, Issue 29 (5-2016)
Abstract

Abstract

Investigating tax policy making dealing with business cycles is the main goal of the present paper. To reach this purpose, two steps have been set up: at the first step, by analyzing the structure of tax policy in Iran's economy, priorities of policy makers have been identified. At the second step, the effectiveness of tax instruments in stabilizing (or destabilizing) business cycles has been determined. So that, despite of procyclical signs of tax rates in Iranian economy, they were not significant, statistically. So, to capture some stylized facts of Iran's economy, by employing "Fiscal Stance", instead of tax rates, it revealed that fiscal stance in Iranian economy is procyclical. Therefore, according to the global experience and existing theories, structural factors which could be effective in alleviating this procyclical space were captured. Among structural factors, the variables of production function meanwhile had a long-run relationship with the tax index, could be effective in stabilizing cycles. So, over recessions periods through protection methods, for instance, taxes must be used to keep the structural variables such as capital stock (K), and Labor (L) in a level which prevent from deep recession


Ahmad Ezzati Shourghouli, Tirdad Ahmadi, Parisa Sahraiee, Ramin Rahimi,
Volume 29, Issue 50 (9-2021)
Abstract

Fiscal multiplier is one of the most important factors which governments and economic policymakers rely on to conduct fiscal policy. This multiplier, which shows the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic production and economic stabilization, has always been a contentious issue among economists and researchers, because there is no theoretical agreement on the size of this coefficient. Therefore, several researchers have tried to empirically estimate the Fiscal multiplier. This effort, which has doubled after the global crisis of 2007-2008 due to the significant role of this policy tool in reducing crises, is the main purpose of this study. This paper estimates the instantaneous and cumulative Fiscal multiplier using quarterly data of Iran economy during 1990 to 2017, using a non-linear threshold auto-regressive model. The results of TAR test and TVECM test showed that the integration of some variables used in the research is nonlinear. Similarly, the Co-integration relationship between the variables is nonlinear. Also estimation of TVAR model and simulated nonlinear impact response functions showed that the multiplier of government expenditures during the recession is greater than the boom period. This is opposite for tax. Also the largest multiplier among the three fiscal policy instruments related to current government expenditures.

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