Journal of Tax Research

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In this research, the effect of a raise in the price of energy on the major macroeconomic variables was examined within a structural macroeconometric model. The model consists of two groups of equations: One group involves long-term equilibrium relations and the other involves short-term dynamic relations which show how the variables adjust according to long-term equilibrium values. Coefficients of the model were estimated within the co-integration method. Time series data for the years 1959-2004 and the real prices of 1995 were used to estimate the coefficients. Tale inequality and square root of the mean of relative error squares were used in order to estimate the fitness degree of tracing the trend of endogenous variables. In order to examine the effect of a rise in the price of energy, the exogenous variables data were firstly produced by means of ARIMA prediction method (in some cases, with regard to average annual growth rate of the variable in question during previous time series). Then, through changing the prices of energy in 2008, the effect of these changes upon endogenous variables of the model including inflation rate, growth rate, unemployment rate, government expenditures and tax revenues for 2007-2011 were estimated within two scenarios, the gradual and the impulsive effects. The model exhibited the effects of any energy price rising policies. Any deviation from the trend of the model's endogenous variables is interpreted as the effect that this kind of policy has on these variables.

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The present research aims at estimating and forecasting tax revenues of Ghazvin province up to the year 1393/2014 on the basis of data of the years 1374/1995-1383/2004. Researchers have tried out to identify the potential/realized tax capacities of the aforesaid province and to explore how to decrease the gaps between the existing and ideal capacities. They have also dealt with identifying the shortcomings of the tax system in the province in question and in the whole country. Research findings show that in spite of a large variety of endogenous variables involved, the general trend of estimation fluctuations has been in conformity with the fluctuations of tax performances of different years so as to say that any abrupt improvements in the tax performance of the province in question have been reflected in the predictions thereof.

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This paper focuses on impacts of the global crisis on some macro structure variables of the Iranian economy. To do the task, the trends of changes in GDP, tax revenues, governmental expenditures, international trade, and the capital market have been analyzed through techniques of VAR and variance analysis. Then, the impacts of the crisis on the Iranian tax revenues have been accounted for in terms of different tax categories. The findings obtained indicate that keeping in mind the descending trends of the above-mentioned indices in 2008 it is predictable that in 2009, too, the crisis will have some more severe impacts on the Iranian economy.

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Fiscal policies have an effective and dynamic role in the process of economic development. They are an almost inseparable part of countries’ economic processes. The efficiency of fiscal policies is a function of proper arrangement and combination of fiscal policy instruments namely, the government revenues and expenditures as well as their flexibility and their being effective on economic goals. In Iran, however, fiscal policies are not sufficiently efficient due to the significant role of oil revenues in the government budget and insufficient tax revenues alongside with inflexibility of government expenditures. The inefficiency of fiscal policies has, in its turn, back grounded the role of tax revenues in decreasing the government budget deficits. This study aims at examining the relationship between budget deficit fluctuations and tax revenues using a structural VAR approach. By imposing long-run restrictions on a VAR model, four structural shocks have been identified: oil income shock, real product shock, tax shock and government expenditure shock. The results show that an impulse in the tax revenue decreases the economic growth (a result which is in line with economic theory) but this negative effect converges to zero in the long-term. Positive impulses both in the oil income and the real product increase the tax revenue levels. Moreover, the government expenditure shock leads to an increase in tax revenues after three periods of time. The results of accumulative impulse response functions show that positive shocks both in oil income and tax revenue decrease the budget deficit levels but the decreasing effect of an oil income shock on the budget deficit is larger than the tax revenue. A variance decomposition of variables shows that real product shocks and tax revenue shocks are the main sources of fluctuation of tax revenues but government expenditures shock dose not have an important role in explaining tax revenue changes. The high degree of dependency of the government budget on oil revenues, unimportant role of taxes in budget deficit changes and great effects of structural factors in budget deficit fluctuations are main outcomes inferred from the variance decomposition of budget deficit.

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Rent-Seeking incentives in government expenditure have constantly been one of the most important factors which have restricted the positive effects of government intervention in economy. Because the consequences of such motivations are, declining in education and health, and increasing in bureaucracy shares in government budget. So, in this paper, we present a model based on microeconomic assumptions and measure index of rent- seeking by using principal component analysis method and show its effects accompanied by other variables on tax revenues. In general, our results show that the tax to GDP ratio will increase after decreasing rent- seeking, increasing per capita income, decreasing agricultural shares in output, more openness of economy and increasing oil revenues. Among mentioned variables, the oil revenue has the greatest effect. Also, the IV-GLS regression shows that an increase of inflation [as a proxy of expansionary fiscal policy] causes tax revenue to decrease. Although, an increase of real effective exchange rate has positive effect on tax earns but it’s not significant statistically. In this manner, the structural reforms have positive and significant effect on tax revenue.

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The study of main determinants of tax revenue especially the structural and institutional ones is the important issue in macroeconomics literature. For this, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of control of corruption and government effectiveness indices on tax revenue in upper middle income countries over the 1990-2009. In this paper, we used the dynamic panel data approach and GMM method for model estimation. The empirical results of study shows that control of corruption and government effectiveness indices have positive and significant effects on tax revenue in these countries. Moreover, the trade openness, the share of industry sector's value added and per capita income have positive and significant effect on tax revenue.

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The economic fluctuations should be considered in financial planning and economic analysis. Since tax is the main revenue of government, it is necessary to pay attention to the different tax bases revenue behavior during different economic fluctuations. In this paper the relationship between VAT collection efficiency (as a proxy of VAT revenue) and a production gap (as an index for introducing business cycle) were investigated. The panel data method was applied for 25 member countries for the period of 1996-2011 for investigating the relationship between VAT revenue efficiency and production gap in an econometric model. The results have indicated that there is a positive relationship between production gap and VAT revenue efficiency.

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  Abstract

  In this paper, tax revenues effect has been investigated on economic growth and income distribution in Iran and 20 selected OECD countries by using Panel Data during the period 1990 to 2011. For this purpose, it applies OLS method to estimate OECD countriesʼs economic growth model, time-Series method to estimate Iran’s economic growth model and GMM method to estimate OECD countries and Iran’s Gini coefficient model. The results illustrate that: (1) There is a direct and positive relationship between economic growth and tax revenues increase and (2) Gini Coefficient increases with the increase in tax revenues and accordingly income inequality increases.

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Abstract

The Compliance of government’s expenditures with its tax revenues is the most important criteria for evaluating the performance of governments in political economy and public sector. Globalization causes governments to lose their monopoly on its implementation of fiscal policies. This study investigates the role of globalization, Oil revenues and economic growth on the ratio of the government’s tax revenues to its expenditures (T/G index) regarding Iran's economy between 1970 and 2014, using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. According to the results, Globalization had a short term positive impact and a long term negative impact on the T/G index. So in the short term Globalization’s “efficiency hypothesis” and in the long term Globalization’s “compensation hypothesis” are true for the Iran’s economy.

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Due to the importance of tax revenues compared to oil revenues in supplying government budget, it is necessary to study tax system efficiency. The decline in real tax revenues is affected by two factors i.e. tax lags and inflexible tax system. If tax Collection Lag is long and the tax system is inflexible, inflation will make the real tax income cut. So, in this study, we tried to use the data from 1380 to 1390 and the cointegration method of Johansen-Juselius to calculate the tax lags and price elasticity of various tax income groups in Golestan province. The results indicate that during the study period, the average tax collection lags were 11 months (companies’ tax lag was 15 months, tax income lag was about 15.3 months, and tax wealth lag was about 2.13 months and the indirect tax lag was about 3/5 months. In other words, the average direct tax collection lags were 79/10 months (11 months). However, during the study period, indirect taxes collection lags were 5.32 months which is less than the direct tax collection lags.

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Governments and policy makers of economic system in each country are trying to make suitable income distribution. The income and wealth inequality will cause serious problems in economic, political and social affairs areas. In this case, tax resource is one of the most efficient instruments of governments in order to improve income distribution. This paper is going to answer this question that to what extent the tax system has been effective in achieving this goal. To do so, the threshold regression model has been used during 1974-2012. The estimation results of the model confirm the threshold effect of taxes on income distribution. In other words, before threshold tax, tax revenue divided by GDP has not significant impact on income distribution but after this threshold level, increasing tax revenue divided by GDP has worsened income distribution. The main fact is derived from weakness of Iranian tax system which the major tax burden is on the productive sectors and wage earners and not on the intermediaries and non-productive sectors.

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The structure and components of government revenues are of great importance in the public-sector economy. In the present study, the main purpose is to provide a model for prioritizing the strategies to increase tax revenues. In order to identify the variables affecting tax revenue, Delphi method is employed with reference to the related review of literature. This research, as the objective reveals, is an applied one, conducted via descriptive-survey method; in addition, the effect of each factor on the others is investigated through Fuzzy DEMATEL approach. The obtained results show that the most influential solutions to increase tax revenues are e-Tax, VAT and VAT on petroleum products, human resources development, capital gain tax in housing sectors, aggregated tax, aggregated business tax and also tax exemptions, social welfare, etc. Using modern systems and electronic tools can significantly reduce or sometimes prevent the development of tax evasion and underground economy.

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In this paper, the relationship between trade liberalization (three different indicators) and total tax revenues collected from four tax bases has been examined using a panel data of 32 less -developed and developing countries (members of WTO) during the period 2000-2015. Although many independent variables have already been included in the models to study the effect of the structural features as well as institutional and political constraints on tax revenues, the present study focuses on reviewing the effect of trade liberalization on tax revenues using different trade liberalization indicators. To this end, three indicators "trade openness", "tariff rate" and "trade freedom" have been taken into account as representatives of liberalization and the results obtained show that each of these indicators has had different effects on tax revenues. Based on the results, tax revenues are not so much affected by the increased trade openness (trade share of GDP) and trade freedom (removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers), while the impact of trade liberalization on the tax structure in the form of lower tariff rates is more than the impacts of  two other indicators of liberalization. The results also show that an increased liberalization (for each of the three indicators used for trade liberalization) is associated with a shift in tax mixture in developing countries. With an increase in the liberalization level, international trade taxes have been reduced, and domestic taxes (such as taxes on goods and services, corporate income tax, and personal income taxes) have increased.

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Abstract
The present study aims to assess the effect of external accountability gap of INTA on public acceptance and tax revenues. This is a survey-applied research by nature. The statistical population in question consists of faculty members, financial managers and government experts, among whom 156 subjects were selected via sampling methods and the questionnaires were distributed among them. The GPOWER, SPSS, LISREL, EXCEL software and the mean test of two dependent samples (paired t-test), one-way variance analysis, randomized block design and multivariate linear models were all used to describe and analyze the data. Based on the obtained results, it was observed that the external accountability rate of INTA was far below the expectations of the stakeholders. From the viewpoint of the participating groups, the highest level of accountability of INTA is related to the government where as the lowest level belongs to the scientific community. The results also showed that increase in the level of external accountability would increase the public confidence and tax revenues amount respectively.

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Nowadays, Value Added Tax (VAT) plays an important role in the economy of countries. Furthermore, VAT accounts for more than a half of their total tax revenues. The statistical surveys during the past decade indicate that the VAT increased dramatically across the world including Iran. Therefore, the ratio of VAT revenues to GDP is 12%, 4% in developed and developing countries respectively; however, it accounts only 3.14% for Iran. With regards to these statics, the main question is what can define the difference in the ratio of Value Added Tax to GDP in these countries? For identifying the main determinants of VAT revenues to GDP, this paper will focus on the VAT registration threshold by using EGLS method of 48 countries over 2008-2017. The results obtained from the estimation of the model indicate that the ratio of VAT revenues to GDP has a negative relationship with the dummy variables, zero rates and exporting the oil of a country, and a positive relationship with other variables. The results bring to important issues regarding collecting VAT revenues: firstly that VAT registration threshold increases VAT revenues. secondly that government should use VAT as one of the main source of increasing revenues, particularly over these years, due to sanctions. Furthermore, this study suggests that the VAT threshold, especially in the VAT law, should be considered.

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The frequent violations of notaries in terms of non-compliance with tax laws and regulations provide a breeding ground for notaries and taxpayers in the field of movable and immovable property transactions, and in this regard, delay tax collection and ultimately waste government fraudulent rights. The main approach of this study is to provide solutions to managers, auditors, auditors and tax supervisors who have a clearer picture of notarial indicators and help to choose the best strategy to improve tax revenue and prevent the spread of delinquency. The fuzzy Delphi method has been used to identify the indicators affecting the lawlessness of notaries. Data were collected from experts familiar with the research topic. BMW technique was used to analyze the data. The results of ranking 29 sub-criteria of the research show that the sub-criterion of not sending information related to regulatory documents (facilitation law) for tax claims and the sub-criterion of preparing documents for definitive sale, peace, gift, power of attorney sales of vehicles without observing Article 42 of Value Added Law From the subgroup of immovable and movable documents, respectively, have occupied the highest position of importance.

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The purpose of this study is to analyze oil and tax revenues in the Iranian economy. Applying the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach, a model for the oil exporting economy was simulated. In order to recover the tax system, oil and tax revenues added to the model as a part of government’s revenue. The present study applies Dynare software with Matlab to estimate the model’s parameters by Bayesian statistical techniques based on Monte Carlo method with Markov chain in the form of Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The period of study is from 1368 to 1396 in a quarterly setting. In order to analyze the shocks, two scenarios were designed. In the first scenario, it was assumed that the government has oil revenues and all oil revenues are spent by the government so that the government does not rely on tax revenues. In the second scenario, it is assumed that 40% of the government's oil revenues are injected into the Development Fund and a percentage of it, is allocated to facilitate the production sector, and the government mostly relies on the taxes. The results show that the tax and oil shock by reducing dependence on oil and reliance on tax revenues, has negative impact on macroeconomic variables in the short term, but in the long run, with increasing tax revenues, production and, consequently, investment, consumption, employment has increased.
JEL classification: H₂₁ C_13، E₁₇، G₅

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Given that Iran's economy has always been accompanied by uncertainties and fluctuations due to the structural reasons such as dependence on oil revenues, high inflation, annual budget deficit and currency fluctuations, the main question is whether tax revenues have been able to neutralize or control the adverse effects of these uncertainties as a powerful financial instrument? So, we used the specified model and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastisity model (GARCH) based on quarterly data from 1990-2019 . The findings of the study confirm the uncertainty of the variables and show that tax revenues have been significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations and inflation.
 

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The current study is descriptive-survey research that was conducted with the aim of investigating the potential of blockchain in realizing tax revenues in Iran. The statistical population of this study consists of the employees of the General Department of Tax Affairs of Fars, which number is equal to 110 people. According to the Morgan's table, the sample size was determined to be 86 males. Due to the possibility of some questionnaires being unusable, 95 questionnaires were distributed by simple random sampling, of which 88 questionnaires were returned. Also, in order to prioritize the indicators, the opinions of seven experts were used. In order to reach the donation of the research, first by reviewing the theoretical research literature, fifteen primary indicators were identified as the potentials of blockchain in realizing tax revenues; Then, using the binomial distribution technique, eight indicators were determined as the most important potentials of blockchain in realizing tax revenues, and seven indicators were eliminated. In the next step, the fit of the proposed model was confirmed through confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, using the OPA technique, indicators were prioritized; based on this, the indicators of  increasing trust in the tax system, non-manipulation, speeding up the tax collection mechanism, no need for third party intervention and approval, higher flexibility than current systems, higher encryption, saving and maintaining all transactions and viewing transactions as "on the spot" ranked one to eight respectively.
 

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According to the important role of governments in economic development and the interrelationships between government's fiscal policies with economic growth and inflation rate, especially in developing countries such as Iran, and based on previous theoretical studies, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationships between fiscal policies (tax revenues and government expenditures) with economic growth and inflation rate in the provinces of Iran during 2009-2021 applying Domitrescu-Horlin causality test. The results indicate that there is a two-way causality between taxes and government expenditures, a two-way causality between taxes and economic growth, no causality between government expenditures and economic growth, a one-way causality from inflation rate to taxes, a two-way causality between government expenditures and inflation, and a one-way causality from inflation to economic growth. Based on the results, it is suggested that the government create a suitable and efficient tax system and also make changes in its expenditures in order to help reduce the inflation rate and affect the budget deficit.