دوره 32، شماره 61 - ( 1403 )
جلد 32 شماره 61 صفحات 248-219 |
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Samadian H, Seyfipour R, DamanKeshideh M, Hadinejad M, keyghobadi A. The Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Effective Tax Rate with Tax Evasion in Iran Using the Rotation Model and Arch Markov Switching Regime Change. J Tax Res 2024; 32 (61) :219-248
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2378-fa.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2378-fa.html
صمدیان هومن، سیفی پور رویا، دامن کشیده مرجان، هادی نژاد منیژه، کیقبادی امیررضا. رابطه عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی و نرخ موثر مالیاتی با فرار مالیاتی در ایران با استفاده از مدل چرخشی و تغییر رژیم آرچ مارکوف سوئیچینگ. پژوهشنامه مالیات. 1403; 32 (61) :219-248
1- ، roy.seyfipour@iauctb.ac.ir
چکیده: (924 مشاهده)
به هر گونه تلاش غیر قانونی فعالان اقتصادی به منظور عدم پرداخت مالیات یا کمتر پرداخت نمودن آن، فرار مالیاتی گفته می‌شود[1]. بروز و گسترش این پدیده به همراه وجود نااطمینانی در متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان، همچنین عدم قطعیت سیاستهای اقتصادی، موجب اثرات منفی مستقیم و غیر مستقیم قابل توجهی بر اقتصاد کشورهای دچار مشکلات یاد شده در دهههای اخیر شده است. لذا ضروری است مجموعه سیاستهای منسجمی به منظور پایش و مقابله با این مشکلات اتخاذ شود. این پژوهش ابتدا عدم قطعیت سیاستهای اقتصادی را توسط انحراف استاندارد سیاستهای پولی و مالی و نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و تورم را با استفاده از روش[2] GARCH - ARCH محاسبه مینماید، سپس متغیرهای اثرات سیاسی تحریم و بحران‌های مالی، شاخص کنترل فساد و کیفیت مقررات را به شکل متغیر موهومی وارد مدل نموده و در نهایت با استفاده از مدل مارکوف سوئیچینگ به بررسی رابطه بین عدم قطعیت سیاستهای اقتصادی و نرخ مؤثر مالیاتی با فرار مالیاتی در ایران به تفکیک دورانهای رونق و رکود، طی بازه زمانی سالهای 1373 تا 1399 میپردازد. نتایج تخمین مدل گویای مثبت بودن ضرایب نااطمینانی نرخ ارز و تورم، اثرتحریم، نرخ مؤثر مالیاتی و عدم قطعیت سیاستهای اقتصادی در ادوار رونق و رکود می‌باشد.
واژه‌های کلیدی: فرار مالیاتی، نرخ موثر مالیاتی، عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی، مدل مارکوف سوئیچینگ.
طبقه‌بندی JEL: C24، E52، G12
فهرست منابع
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