پژوهشنامه مالیات

Tax revenues are superior to other sources of income from the domestic economy for many reasons, including controllability. The current conditions of the Iranian economy and the imposed economic sanctions, as well as the instability of oil prices and oil revenues, have led to the failure to realize the government's revenue plans, and if this trend continues in the long term, the country will face an economic crisis. One of the challenges of the failure to realize the aforementioned plans is the unexpected behaviors that the economic system exhibits over time. In this article, the system dynamics approach, which is capable of displaying a multi-loop and multi-state structure and can model nonlinear feedbacks and time delays, has been used. The main objective of this article is to examine the variables of the tax system on macroeconomic variables, including the inflation rate, unemployment rate, and GDP growth rate, and to present a model for increasing tax revenue, which leads to the selection of the best strategy for improving tax revenue. For this purpose, for a ten-year period (from 1395 to 1404), first the flow-accumulation diagram was drawn and in the next stage the validity of the model built from a dynamic perspective was tested. It is important to state that the variables of this study were selected by considering the subsystems intended by the researchers and the presented model can only be developed and implemented in this system. In other words, in the process of selecting and defining variables, it should be noted that taxes are collected in different bases and sources, and some of these bases and sources have a direct relationship with some economic variables and some have an inverse relationship, and the elasticity of each is also different, so the same variables cannot be used for all bases and sources. After simulating the model and analyzing the applied policies, a valid model with an improved policy structure was obtained for which various scenarios for the future were defined. Thus, optimistic, pessimistic and realistic scenarios have been considered and finally 23 strategies for improving the tax system have been presented, the adoption of each strategy affects the performance of the tax system and some macroeconomic variables. The Tax Affairs Organization, considering the economic conditions of the country and its valuable human resources, can adopt an appropriate strategy or a combination of them and improve the country's tax revenue situation.