Volume 16, Issue 3 (2009)
J Tax Res 2009, 16(3): 67-104 |
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Lezgi F, Amini A, Shomali L, Najafi A. Estimating Tax Revenues in Ghazvin Province: A Time Series Model Approach. J Tax Res 2009; 16 (3) :67-104
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-153-en.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-153-en.html
1- M.A. in Economic Statistics; Deputy for Economic Affairs of Ghazvin Economic Affairs & Finance Organization
2- M.A. in Economics; an Expert of Ghazvin Economic Affairs & Finance Organization
3- B.A. in Economics; a Comptroller Agent at Ramsar Tax Affairs Office
4- B.A. in Statistics; a Budget Expert at the Planning Deputy of Ghazvin Governer-General
2- M.A. in Economics; an Expert of Ghazvin Economic Affairs & Finance Organization
3- B.A. in Economics; a Comptroller Agent at Ramsar Tax Affairs Office
4- B.A. in Statistics; a Budget Expert at the Planning Deputy of Ghazvin Governer-General
Abstract: (8507 Views)
The present research aims at estimating and forecasting tax revenues of Ghazvin province up to the year 1393/2014 on the basis of data of the years 1374/1995-1383/2004. Researchers have tried out to identify the potential/realized tax capacities of the aforesaid province and to explore how to decrease the gaps between the existing and ideal capacities. They have also dealt with identifying the shortcomings of the tax system in the province in question and in the whole country. Research findings show that in spite of a large variety of endogenous variables involved, the general trend of estimation fluctuations has been in conformity with the fluctuations of tax performances of different years so as to say that any abrupt improvements in the tax performance of the province in question have been reflected in the predictions thereof.
Keywords: Tax, tax system, tax revenues prediction, time series, intervention methods, potential tax capacity, actual tax capacity
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2008/09/28 | Accepted: 2008/12/6 | Published: 2014/03/14
Received: 2008/09/28 | Accepted: 2008/12/6 | Published: 2014/03/14
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