1- سازمان امور مالیاتی , ashkan_tax@yahoo.com
2- سازمان امور مالیاتی
2- سازمان امور مالیاتی
Abstract: (19 Views)
This applied study aims to evaluate the potential revenue-generating capacity of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) in Iran’s foreign exchange market, particularly in the U.S. dollar segment. Given the growing influence of speculative behavior on currency fluctuations, CGT is proposed as a tool for managing unproductive demand and indicating a potential source of government revenue, subject to implementation capacity, information coverage, and effective tax enforcement.The research analyzes historical data on U.S. dollar exchange rates from 2011 to 2024 (1390–1403 in the Iranian calendar) and employs a Python-based simulation model to estimate both nominal and real profits from holding dollars over 12-month periods. The model incorporates various scenarios based on individual transaction volumes and the number of market participants. It also accounts for assumptions regarding CGT realization rates and annual inflation. As it evolves, the model is expandable to include sensitivity analysis and estimation of CGT contributions to public revenue. Preliminary findings outline a flexible framework for tax policy analysis in the foreign exchange market
Keywords: Capital Gains Tax, Foreign Exchange Market, Scenario Analysis, Tax Realization Rate, Regulatory Tax Instruments
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