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Abdolmaleki H, Haghverdi S. Investigating panel causality between fiscal policies (tax revenue and government expenditures), economic growth, and inflation in Iran. J Tax Res 2024; 33 (63) :7-38
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2457-fa.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2457-fa.html
عبدالملکی حامد، حق‌وردی سیروس. بررسی علیت پانلی بین سیاست‌های مالی، رشد اقتصادی و تورم در ایران. پژوهشنامه مالیات. 1403; 33 (63) :7-38
1- ، h.abdolmaleki@tax.gov.ir
چکیده: (192 مشاهده)
با توجه به نقش حائز اهمیت دولت در توسعه اقتصادی و روابط متقابل سیاست‌های مالی دولت با رشد اقتصادی و نرخ تورم به ویژه کشورهای در حال توسعه همچون ایران، هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی روابط علی بین سیاست‌های مالی دولت (درآمدهای مالیاتی و مخارج دولت) با رشد اقتصادی و نرخ تورم در استان‌های ایران در دوره زمانی 1400-1388 با استفاده از آزمون علیت دومیترسکو-هورلین می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه با هر دو فرضیه مالیات-مخارج فریدمن (1992) و مخارج-مالیات پیکاک و وایزمن (1979) سازگار بوده و حاکی از آن است که مالیات و مخارج دولت رابطه علیت دو طرفه با یکدیگر دارند. همچنین، مطابق با فرضیه رومر (1989) مبتنی بر اثر بر تصمیمات تخصیصی بنگاه‌ها و فرضیه مارزو (1998) مبتنی بر اثر انباشت عوامل تولید، و همچنین قانون واگنر، بین مالیات و رشد اقتصادی رابطه علیت دو طرفه وجود دارد. با این حال، بین مخارج دولت و رشد اقتصادی هیچ گونه رابطه علیتی یافت نشده است. علاوه بر این، بین نرخ تورم و مالیات یک رابطه علیت یک طرفه از تورم به سمت مالیات وجود دارد. این نتیجه فرضیه اثر تانزی (1977) را تأیید می‌کند. همچنین بر اساس نتایج و منطبق بر مطالعات پیشین یک رابطه علیت دو سویه بین مخارج دولت و نرخ تورم وجود دارد. در نهایت با توجه به نتایج این مطالعه، یک رابطه علیت از نرخ تورم به سمت رشد اقتصادی وجود دارد که تئوری عمومی کینز و عدم تعدیل کامل دستمزدها را تأیید می‌نماید.
فهرست منابع
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