Shahrzad Seyed Salehi, Majid Sameti, Karim Azarbayejani, Mehei Basirat,
Volume 29, Issue 51 (12-2021)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze oil and tax revenues in the Iranian economy. Applying the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach, a model for the oil exporting economy was simulated. In order to recover the tax system, oil and tax revenues added to the model as a part of government’s revenue. The present study applies Dynare software with Matlab to estimate the model’s parameters by Bayesian statistical techniques based on Monte Carlo method with Markov chain in the form of Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The period of study is from 1368 to 1396 in a quarterly setting. In order to analyze the shocks, two scenarios were designed. In the first scenario, it was assumed that the government has oil revenues and all oil revenues are spent by the government so that the government does not rely on tax revenues. In the second scenario, it is assumed that 40% of the government's oil revenues are injected into the Development Fund and a percentage of it, is allocated to facilitate the production sector, and the government mostly relies on the taxes. The results show that the tax and oil shock by reducing dependence on oil and reliance on tax revenues, has negative impact on macroeconomic variables in the short term, but in the long run, with increasing tax revenues, production and, consequently, investment, consumption, employment has increased.
JEL classification: H21 C13، E17، G5
Mousavi Baghiatallah, Farazmand Hasan, Arman Sayed Aziz , Mansori Sayed Amin ,
Volume 30, Issue 54 (9-2022)
Abstract
In many developed countries, the positive features of consumption tax have led to the increasing use of it. In a way, the revenue collected from the consumption tax has replaced the income tax. In this paper, the effects of implementing the policy of increasing the consumption tax rate and decreasing the income tax rate on some macro variables of the Iranian economy were investigated using the DSGE model. The results show the positive effects of this policy on GDP, investment, employment and government budget in the short and medium term. Although consumption is declining in the short term and decreasing compared to before the implementation of the policy, it is rapidly increasing to the previous level and in the medium term to a higher level. In the long run, all variables return to the pre-policy process. Therefore, the implementation of this policy is proposed in line with the principles of resistance economics and in order to improve the performance of the tax system.
