Volume 16, Issue 2 (2008)
J Tax Res 2008, 16(2): 57-82 |
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Noferesti M. Effects of Energy Prices on Tax Revenues and Government's Current Expenditures within a Structural Macro Econometric Model. J Tax Res 2008; 16 (2) :57-82
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-161-en.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-161-en.html
Assistant Professor of Economics at Shahid Beheshti University
Abstract: (9751 Views)
In this research, the effect of a raise in the price of energy on the major
macroeconomic variables was examined within a structural macroeconometric
model. The model consists of two groups of equations:
One group involves long-term equilibrium relations and the other
involves short-term dynamic relations which show how the variables
adjust according to long-term equilibrium values. Coefficients of the
model were estimated within the co-integration method. Time series
data for the years 1959-2004 and the real prices of 1995 were used to
estimate the coefficients. Tale inequality and square root of the mean
of relative error squares were used in order to estimate the fitness
degree of tracing the trend of endogenous variables. In order to
examine the effect of a rise in the price of energy, the exogenous
variables data were firstly produced by means of ARIMA prediction
method (in some cases, with regard to average annual growth rate of
the variable in question during previous time series). Then, through
changing the prices of energy in 2008, the effect of these changes
upon endogenous variables of the model including inflation rate,
growth rate, unemployment rate, government expenditures and tax
revenues for 2007-2011 were estimated within two scenarios, the
gradual and the impulsive effects. The model exhibited the effects of
any energy price rising policies. Any deviation from the trend of the
model's endogenous variables is interpreted as the effect that this kind
of policy has on these variables.
Keywords: Tax revenues, energy prices, government expenditures, inflation rate, econometrics, macro economic structure
Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2008/04/22 | Accepted: 2008/07/22 | Published: 2014/03/14
Received: 2008/04/22 | Accepted: 2008/07/22 | Published: 2014/03/14
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