Volume 33, Issue 66 (2025)
J Tax Res 2025, 33(66): 141-183 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
ebrahimi A, zandi F, aligholi M, rabiei M. The impact of economic shocks on the country's tax revenue using the DSGE method. J Tax Res 2025; 33 (66) :141-183
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2394-en.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2394-en.html
1- , ali_ab90@yahoo.com
Abstract: (356 Views)
Tax is one of the most important sources of government revenue. In this connection, economic impulses can affect tax revenues according to the type and source of impulse production, and as a result, subsequent effects can be created on other economic variables. Therefore, analysis of the effects of economic impulses on tax revenues and policy making in order to improve tax revenues based on its results is very important. Based on this, in this study, the effect of economic impulses on tax revenues in Iran's economy has been investigated using the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model. Based on the results of the research, applying the positive momentum of the oil price, with the effect of increasing the foreign currency entry into the country and causing the Dutch disease, has weakened the domestic production and reduced the employment and income of the labor force, and accordingly, the tax income of the government is reduced. Also, the positive impulse to productivity and the negative impulse to the interest rate or expansionary monetary policy also cause an increase in production and employment and an increase in the income of the labor force, and according to this, the government's tax income increases.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Economic
Received: 2024/07/4 | Accepted: 2025/07/3 | Published: 2025/09/1
Received: 2024/07/4 | Accepted: 2025/07/3 | Published: 2025/09/1
References
1. Abu Nouri, Abbas Ali and Ziuri Masoud, Somayeh (2014). The Effect of Tax Revenues on Economic Growth and Income Distribution; Iran and Selected OECD Countries; Tax Research Journal, 22(24)4: 64-85. [In Persian]
2. Ahmadi, Khazri, Zandi, Safavi. (2025). Investigating the impact of oil revenues on the realization of tax revenues, in conditions of tax rent seeking: DSGE approach. Economic Policy, 16(32), 117-144. [In Persian]
3. Alves, J. (2018). A DSGE Model to Evaluate the Macroeconomic Impacts of Taxation, Research in Economics and Mathematics Working Paper, 062: 1-21 [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3293899]
4. Angelopoulos, K., Philippopoulos, A., Vassilatos, V. (2009). The Social Cost of Rent -seeking in Europe, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 25, pp. 280-299.Approach", Journal of Energy Economics, Vol. 32. [DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2009.06.001]
5. Asadi Asad Abad, Marzieh and Najafizade, Sayed Abbas and Akbari Moghaddam, Baytollh (2022), "Optimization and Analysis of Central Bank Losses for Oil Exporting Economy, Application of DSGE Model (Case study of Iranian Economy)
6. Asadzadeh, Fouman, Yasman. (2017). Investigating the impact of banking and stock market activities on tax revenues in Iran. Applied Economic Theories, 4(1), 149-172. [In Persian]
7. Ayeni, E., and Fanibuyan, O. (2022). The dynamics of uncertainty, macroeconomic variables, and capital market performance: A case study of Nigeria, Research in Globalization, 5(7), 54-69. [DOI:10.1016/j.resglo.2022.100107]
8. Bahrami, Javid and Qureshi, Nayreh Sadat (2011). Analyzing Monetary Policy in the Iranian Economy Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 5(1)13: 1-22. [In Persian]
9. Ben Ameur, H., Le Fur, E. & Pillot, J. (2022). The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Business Cycles on Fine Wine Prices. Computational Economics. [DOI:10.1007/s10614-021-10225-3]
10. Chehraghani, Ahmad and Zaranejad, Mansour (2019). Investigating the Effect of Value Added Tax on Iran's Economic Growth Using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model; Economic Growth and Development Research 9(36): 109-128. [In Persian]
11. Dadgar, Yadoleh, Nazari, Ruhollah, and Sayami-Iraqi, Ebrahim (2013). Government and Optimal Taxation in the Public Sector Economy and the Function of Government and Taxation in Iran; Quarterly Journal of Applied Economic Studies in Iran, No. 2. [In Persian]
12. Falihi, Nemat (2008). Investigating the factors affecting tax effort and proposing a model for developing a dynamic tax effort system. Tax Research Journal, 16 (1): 9-41. [In Persian]
13. Farrokhnejad, Farshid. Emami, Karim. Memarnejad, Abbas and Peikarjou, Kambiz (2013). Investigating the mechanism of the impact of bank capital on real variables of an oil-based economy using DSGE approach; Financial Research, 25 (2): 301-320. [In Persian]
14. Farzin Vash, Asadollah, Ehsani, Mohammad Ali, Jafari Samimi, Ahmad, and Gholami, Zabiholah (2012). Studying the Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policies on Production in the Iranian Economy; Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 20(61): 5-28. [In Persian]
15. Fouman, Yasman and Asadzadeh, Ahmad (2017). Studying the impact of banking and stock market activities on tax revenues in Iran, Quarterly Journal of Applied Economic Theories, 4 (1). [In Persian]
16. Garai-Nejad, Alireza and Chapardar, Elahe (2012). Study of factors affecting tax revenues in Iran, Financial Economics Journal, No. 20. [In Persian]
17. Gudarzi Farahani, Yazdan and Abbasinejad, Hossein, (2023) "Measuring the impact of economic uncertainty impulse on macroeconomic variables: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach", Stable Economy Journal, 4(3),107-133.
18. Gupta, A. (2007); "Determinants of Tax Revenue Efforts in Developing Countries", IMF Working Paper, No. 07-184. [DOI:10.5089/9781451867480.001]
19. Harrison, R. T., Mason, C. M., & Girling, P. (2004), Financial Bootstrapping and Venture Development in the Software Industry. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 16(4), 307- 333. [DOI:10.1080/0898562042000263276]
20. Ishak, P.W., & Farzanegan, M.R. (2020). The Impact of Declining Oil Rents on Tax Revenues: Does the Shadow Economy Matter?. Energy Economics, 92(1): 104925. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104925]
21. Kalbasi (2006). Topics in Money and Banking, Book: Rasa Cultural Services Institute. [In Persian]
22. Karimi Firouzjani, Hamzeh, Karimi Patanlar, Saeed and Jafari Samimi, Ahmad (2014). The impact of oil shocks on government expenditure components and tax revenues in Iran, Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(37). [In Persian]
23. Karras, Georgios (1996), "Why are the Effects of Money- Supply Shocks Asymmetric? Convex Aggregate Supply or Pushing on a String", Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 18, No.4. [DOI:10.1016/S0164-0704(96)80054-1]
24. Kasaipour, Neda and Erfani, Alireza (2018) "Optimal Cyclical Behavior of Monetary Policy of Iran: Using a DSGE Model" Iranian Journal of Economic Studies, 7(1), 61-79
25. Kwesi Ofori, I., Obeng, C. K., & Armah, M. K. (2018). Exchange rate volatility and tax revenue: Evidence from Ghana. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1): 153-782 doi: 10.1080/23322039.2018.1537822. [DOI:10.1080/23322039.2018.1537822]
26. Liu, Z., Waggoner, D.F. & Zha, T. (2011). Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-switching DSGE Approach. Quantitative Economics, 2(2), 251-301. [DOI:10.3982/QE71]
27. Long, J. B. & C. I. Plosser (1983), "Real Business Cycle", Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91. [DOI:10.1086/261128]
28. McCandless, G. (2008). The ABCs of RBCs: An introduction to dynamic macroeconomic models. Harvard University Press [DOI:10.4159/9780674033788]
29. Momeni Vesalian Houshang, Daghighi Asli Alireza, Zamanian Mahboobeh. (2010). Studying the relationship between tax revenues and government budget deficit in the Iranian economy, Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 4, No. 11, 177-200. [In Persian]
30. Mukhtarov, S., Humbatova, S., Seyfullayev, I., & Kalbiyev, Y. (2020). "The effect of financial development on energy consumption in the case of Kazakhstan". Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 75-88. [DOI:10.1080/15140326.2019.1709690]
31. Pejouyan, Jamshid (2013). Public Sector Economics (Taxes); Tehran, Jangal Publications, 10th edition. Pages 38-45. [In Persian]
32. Pourmoghim, Seyed Javad (1994). Public Sector Economics; Tehran, Ney Publication, third edition, pages 240-26 . [In Persian]
33. Romero, R. E. (2008), "Monetary policy in oil-producing economies", CEPS, Working Paper, NO. 169.
34. Sabbagh Kermani, Majid. Yavari, Kazem. Mousavi Nik, Seyed Hadi and Bagheri Parmehr, Sholeh (2014). Investigating the effect of fiscal governance on the inflation rate of the Iranian economy within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 14(1): 1-26. [In Persian]
35. Shokrinia Mehdi, Almasi Mojtaba, Falahati Ali. (1402). Estimating tax elasticities in Iran by tax type: A nonlinear and asymmetric approach. Quarterly Journal of the Iranian Tax Affairs Organization, Volume 31, Number 58. [In Persian]
36. Taha, R., Colombage, S. R., Maslyuk, S., & Nanthakumar, L. (2013). Does financial system activity affect tax revenue in Malaysia? Bounds testing and causality approach. Journal of Asian Economics, 24, 147-157. [DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2012.11.001]
37. Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (2000); "Corruption, Growth, and Public Finance", IMF Working Papar, WP/00/182. [DOI:10.5089/9781451859256.001]
38. Tari, Fathullah and Sattari, Rasoul (2015). The Effect of Government Expenditures and Taxes on Economic Growth of OPEC Countries; Economic Research Journal, 16: 153-182. [In Persian]
39. Tavakolian, H., & Ghiaie, H. (2019). Optimal inflation targeting in a dual-exchange rate oil economy. Working Parer, 9.
40. Tavakolian, Hossein and Mehdi Sarem (2017). DSGE Models in Dynare Software, Monetary and Banking Research Institute. [In Persian]
41. Snowdon, B., & Vane, H. R. (2005). Modern macroeconomics: Its origins, development and current state. Edward Elgar Publishing.
42. Tijerina-Guajardo, J.A. & Pagan, J.A. (2003). Government Spending, Taxation, and Oil Revenues in Mexico. Review of Development Economics, 7(1): 152-164 [DOI:10.1111/1467-9361.00182]
43. Upadhyaya, K. P., Mixon Jr, F. G., & Basnet, H. C. (2025). Oil price shocks and the macroeconomy: new evidence from Eastern European countries. Applied Economics, 1-14. [DOI:10.1080/00036846.2025.2467291]
44. Zakharov, N. (2019). Asymmetric oil price shocks, tax revenues, and the resource curse, Economics Letters, 186(2020): 108-515. doi10.1016/j.econlet.2019.06.02 [DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2019.06.021]
45. Zaranejad, Mansour, Tabeh-e-Yazdi, Amin and Hosseinpour, Fatemeh (2014). Investigating and measuring the impact of oil revenues on tax revenues in Iran. Journal of Business Research, No. 18. [In Persian]
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
