Volume 33, Issue 67 (2025)
J Tax Res 2025, 33(67): 74-116 |
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dadashi I, omidi V. Investigating the effect of sanctions on government tax revenues using NARDL approach. J Tax Res 2025; 33 (67) :74-116
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2450-en.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2450-en.html
1- University of Qom
2- University of Qom ,V.omidi@qom.ac.ir
2- University of Qom ,
Abstract: (25 Views)
If international sanctions are applied widely and continuously, they can have major effects on the economy of the goal country. In recent years, Iran has always faced all kinds of cruel sanctions under false pretenses. It is expected that with the impact of sanctions on the gross domestic product and its negative effects in various economic sectors including production and services, the amount of government revenues through the collection of direct and indirect taxes in the real sector of the economy will be affected. In this research, based on quarterly data in the period from 2001 to 2021 and based on NARDL and QQR approaches, the impact of the sanctions imposed on the government's tax revenues at two levels of corporate income tax and total tax has been investigated. The findings of the NARDL approach showed that in the long term, increasing the severity of the sanctions will reduce the total tax and corporate income tax. With the difference that its effect on the income from corporate tax has been greater. In the case that the severity of sanctions is decreasing, the results show that the coefficient is positive and significant at the 90% confidence level for corporate tax and the coefficient is meaningless for total tax; which shows the fragility of the expectation of tax increase at the time of reducing the intensity of sanctions. The short-term results, however, have brought a different result, and the increase in sanctions has caused an increase in the total tax and corporate income tax. The results of the QQR method show that the imposition of the sanctions intensity in the 7th to 10th decile on total tax and corporate tax, when they are in the 3rd to 10th decile, was negative. As a result, two approaches show that increasing the intensity of sanctions has caused a decrease in the government's tax revenue in Iran.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Economic
Received: 2024/12/14 | Accepted: 2025/12/1 | Published: 2025/12/1
Received: 2024/12/14 | Accepted: 2025/12/1 | Published: 2025/12/1
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