Volume 32, Issue 63 (2024)
J Tax Res 2024, 32(63): 116-158 |
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Hekmati Farid S, Fattahi F, Shahbazi K. Investigating the asymmetric effects of trade, economic growth and monetary and financial policies on inflation in Iran using non-linear model NARDL. J Tax Res 2024; 32 (63) :116-158
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2460-en.html
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2460-en.html
1- , s.hekmati@urmia.ac.ir
Abstract: (261 Views)
This study investigated the asymmetric effects of trade, economic growth and monetary and financial policies on inflation in Iran. For this purpose, quarterly data 1991:2 to 2022:1 and nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) modelling approach has been used. The results show that, there is a significant negative relationship between inflation and trade openness. that these results indicate the confirmation of Roemer's theory in Iran. Also, the coefficient of government spending shocks has a positive effect on inflation. In addition, the results indicate that the positive shock of the money volume or monetary policy (increasing trend in the money volume) has a positive effect and the negative shock of the money volume has a negative effect on inflation. In addition, a positive exchange rate shock has a positive and significant effect and a negative exchange rate shock has a negative and significant effect on inflation, which results indicate a positive and significant relationship between inflation and exchange rate. Finally, the results show that the positive shock coefficient of economic growth has a negative and significant effect and the negative shock of economic growth has a positive and significant effect on inflation.
The results of the Wald test also show that the effects of positive and negative shocks of monetary policy, financial policy and exchange rate on inflation are asymmetric both in the long and short term. However, the effects of positive and negative shocks of trade openness and economic growth on the inflation index are asymmetric only in the long run.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Management
Received: 2024/12/29 | Accepted: 2024/11/30 | Published: 2024/11/30
Received: 2024/12/29 | Accepted: 2024/11/30 | Published: 2024/11/30
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