Volume 33, Issue 68 (2026)                   J Tax Res 2026, 33(68): 171-211 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Kianighalehno M, Zayandehroody M. "Investigation of the Nonlinear Relationship Between Value-Added Tax on Product Sales and the Value Added of Industrial Workshops with Medium Employment (10 or More Employees),. J Tax Res 2026; 33 (68) :171-211
URL: http://taxjournal.ir/article-1-2505-en.html
"Investigation of the Nonlinear Relationship Between Value-Added Tax on Product Sales and the Value Added of Industrial Workshops with Medium Employment (10 or More Employees),
Maryam Kianighalehno *1 , Mohsen Zayandehroody
1- , mk93economics@gmail.com
Abstract:   (278 Views)
The increasing growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the special attention of the government and economic planners to these enterprises and their role in various economic areas in the country, have made it a priority for the country's economic system to address existing problems and shortcomings as closely as possible and to try to remove obstacles surrounding them. However, some features of the tax system may disproportionately affect the performance of industrial workshops with 10 employees and above, for example, the asymmetric treatment of profits and losses, the bias towards debt over equity, and the higher fixed costs of taxes and compliance with regulations for small businesses. The imposition of taxes/duties on small and medium-sized enterprises, coupled with the inadequate provision of social infrastructure, poses a threat that these businesses may not be able to survive difficult economic conditions. Often, it leads to their downsizing. In this regard, this study has attempted to evaluate and explain the impact of sales tax as well as indirect taxes and duties paid by industrial workshops with 10 employees and above on the investment decisions of these workshops. The statistical population considered for this study is industrial workshops with 10 employees and above active in the industrial towns of the provinces of the country. The time range considered for this study is from 1390 to 1400. Also, to examine the questions of this study, the model considered for testing is the soft transition threshold regression model. The findings of this study showed that after the amount of the logarithm of sales tax on products produced by industrial workshops with 10 employees and above exceeds 4.898 units, the logarithm of per capita production of industrial workshops changes with a wide and very significant behavior instead of having a positive and significant effect on the amount of the logarithm of added value of these workshops, it acts negatively and significantly. In other words, in the first regime of this model, the estimated coefficient for the variable of the logarithm of per capita production of industrial workshops was 0.171, which changes to -0.637 for the second regime of the model. This means that if the logarithm of the tax on the sales value of products produced by industrial workshops exceeds 4.898 units, any further increase in efforts to collect more taxes on the sales value of products produced by these workshops will be met with a decrease in the per capita production of workshops, which, considering the country's macroeconomic policies and economic and social development programs, as well as the policies announced by the Supreme Leader, can cause irreparable damage to the country's production pillars and, consequently, further weaken the country's production and economic system. This was presented as one of the important results of this research and a policy recommendation to the country's tax planners and policymakers.
 
Keywords: Small and medium-sized enterprises, sales value tax, value added of industrial workshops with 10 employees and above, soft transition threshold regression model
Full-Text [PDF 1271 kb]   (114 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Economic
Received: 2025/06/20 | Accepted: 2025/11/23 | Published: 2026/03/1
References
1. آلتمن، موریس (1397)، کتاب اقتصاد رفتاری، ترجمه محسن رنانی و همکاران، انتشارات آوند دانش، بهمن ماه 1397
2. پژویان، جمشید. (1399). کتاب اقتصاد بخش عمومی (مالیات‌ها). سال 1399، انتشارات جنگل
3. چاووشی،کمال الدین و مهدوی کنی،هادی و حسینی،سیدقاسم (1388)، آثار مالیات بر ارزش افزوده بر عملکرد مالی بنگاه‌های صنعتی ایران، مجله تحقیقات مالیات، شماره (59)، ، صص 81-97.
4. حسینی، اکبر و کریمی، رضا (1403)، بررسی رابطه مالیات بر ارزش افزوده و بهره‌وری در صنایع تولیدی، مجله پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، شماره (78)، بهار 1403، صص 14-21.
5. حسن پور امینی، مطهره؛ داوری، علی؛ محمدزاده، امیر و امین خاکی، علیرضا (1400)، طراحي مدل سياست هاي مالياتي مشوق كارآفريني مولد در ايران، مجله مديريت توسعه و تحول، شماره 48، صص 127-
6. خدايی، مهدی، جعفری، محمد و فتاحی، شهرام. (1397). بررسی اثرات سیاست‌های مالی بر رشد اقتصادی در اقتصاد ايران: مدل‌های حالت-فضا. فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، 8(31)، 81-94.
7. زروکی شهریار، ملاتبار فیروزجایی فاطمه، نصرنزاد نشلی سحر، نوروزی میترا. (۱۴۰۲)، تحلیلی نامتقارن از انصاف و پیچیدگی مالیاتی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران. فصلنامه پژوهش ها وسیاست‌های اقتصادی. ۳۱ (۱۰۸) :۲۰۱-۲۵۰
8. ستایش، هدیه؛ معمارنژاد، عباس؛ هژبر کیانی، کامبیز و ترابی، تقی (1401)، بررسی اثر کارگاه‌های صنعتی کوچک و متوسط بر رشد ارزش‌افزوده بخش صنعت در اقتصاد ایران، نشریه اقتصاد مالی، دوره 16، شماره 59، شهریور 1401، صفحه 221-252
9. شاهنوش فروشانی، محمدصابر و رجب زاده، محمدرضا (1401)، آسیب شناسی معافیت ها و مشوق های مالیاتی جمهوری اسالمی ایران با رویکرد حمایت از تولید، فصلنامه اقتصاد دفاع انجمن علمی اقتصاد دفاع ايران، سال ششم، شماره بیست و دوم، زمستان 1400، صص 111-132.
10. صداقت کالمرزی، هانیه و موسوی، میر حسین (1393). برآوردی از منحنی لافر در ایران: یک رویکرد غیرخطی، نشریه دانشگاه شیراز (IJES)، دوره 3، شماره 1، شماره پیاپی 1، اردیبهشت 1393، صص 59-43.
11. 10.صمدی، علی حسین و اوجی مهر، سکینه (1391)، بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر رفتار موافق ادواری سیاست مالی با تأکید بر تلاطم قیمت نفت: مطالعه موردی ایران (1353-1386)، فصلنامه علمی-پژوهشی جستارهای اقتصادی ایران، شماره 9 (18)، صص 29-57.
12. گزارش مرکز پژوهش های مجلس شورای اسلامی، 1399
13. مکیان، سید نظام الدین؛ توکلیان، حسین و نجفی فراشاه، سید محمد صالح (1398)، بررسی اثر شوک مالیات‌های مستقیم بر تولید ناخالص داخلی و تورم در ایران در چارچوب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی، نشریه اقتصاد مالی، دوره 13، شماره 49، اسفند 1398، صص 46-1.
14. موسوی جهرمی، یگانه؛ ایزدی، سید حسین؛ رضوی، محمدرضا و خداداد کاشی، فرهاد (1395)، ارزیابی تاثیر معافیتهای مالیاتی موضوع ماده 132 (قانون مالیات‌های مستقیم) بر سرمایه‌گذاری و ورود شرکت ها به شهرستان های کمتر توسعه یافته کشور، پژوهشنامه مالیات، شماره سی ودوم، مسلسل 80، زمستان 1395
15. نادری، سعید و سلاطین، پروانه. (1397). تاثیر مالیات بر ارزش افزوده بر توزیع درآمد در گروه کشورهای منتخب درآمد متوسط. سیاست‌های راهبردی و کلان، 6(24)، 568-595.
16. نتایج طرح آمارگیری از کارگاه‌های صنعتی 10 نفر کارکن و بیشتر کشور. (1390-1400)
17. References
18. Abdenour, R. and Tounsi, S. (2015). "Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Moroccan Case". MPRA Paper 69830, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016, Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA).
19. Acs,Z.J.(1992), Small Business Economics; a Global Perspective,Challenge, 35.38-44. [DOI:10.1080/05775132.1992.11471626]
20. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/05775132.1992.11471626utm_source=chatgpt.com
21. Acs,.Z & Audretsch,D. (1988). Innovation and Firm Size in Manufacturing, Technovation, 7, 197-210. [DOI:10.1016/0166-4972(88)90020-X]
23. Agrawal, D. R. & Hoyt, W. H. (2023), The Effects of Sales Taxes on Business Investment: Evidence from U.S. State Borders, Journal of Public Economics, 23(1), 63-78.
24. https://DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104818
25. Altman, M. (2018). Behavioral Economics (M. Ranani et al., Trans.). Avand Danesh Publications. [In Persian]
26. Audretsch, D. B. (2007). Entrepreneurship Capital and Economic Growth, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 23(1), 63-78. [DOI:10.1093/oxrep/grm001]
28. Audretsch, D.B. & Keilbach, M. (2004). Entrepreneurship Capital and Economic Performance, Regional Studies, 38(8), 949-959. [DOI:10.1080/0034340042000280956]
30. Baum, A. and Koester, G. B. (2011). "The Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Economic Activity Over The Business Cycle - Evidence From A Threshold VAR Analysis". Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre Series, Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies No 03/2011 [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2785397]
31. Benzarti,Y.Carloni,D., Harju, J., & Kosonen, T. (2024). The Production Impact of Value-Added Tax: Firm-Level Evidence from France. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 7, 197-210
32. Biolsi, C. (2017). "Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 78: 54- 87. [DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2017.03.003]
34. Çevik, S. (2015). Domestic Saving and Tax Structure: Evidence from Turkey/ Yurtiçi Tasarruflar ve Vergi Yapisi: Türkiye Örnegi. Sosyoekonomi, 87. [DOI:10.17233/se.48977]
35. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/21083/227013utm_source
36. DOI: 10.17233/se.48977 [DOI:10.17233/se.48977]
37. Checherita,W. C. & P. Rother (2012). "The Impact of High Government Debt on Economic Growth and its Channels: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Erea", European Economic Review, 56(7): 1392-1405. [DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.06.007]
38. DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.06.007 [DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.06.007]
39. Cravo, Tulio A., Gourlay, A & Becker, B (2012), SMEs and Regional Economic Growth in Brazil, Small Business Economics, 38, 217-230. [DOI:10.1007/s11187-010-9261-z]
40. https://doi: 10.1007/s11187-010-9261-z [DOI:10.1007/s11187-010-9261-z]
41. Drazen, A. (1991). "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? ". Comment in Blanchard O.J. and S. Fischer (eds.): NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press: Cambridge, MA., 1991.
42. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/nber-macroeconomics-annual-1991-volume-6 [DOI:10.1086/654153]
43. DOI 10.1086/maa.6.frontmatter
44. Griliches, Z. (1980). R&D and the Productivity Slowdown, American Economic Review, 70, 2, 343-348. [DOI:10.3386/w0434]
46. Hansen, B. E. (1996). "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is not Identified under the Null Hypothesis". Econometrica 64: 413-430. [DOI:10.2307/2171789]
48. Hassanpour Amini, M., Davari, A., Mohammadzadeh, A., & Amin Khaki, A. (2021). Designing a model of tax policies encouraging productive entrepreneurship in Iran. Journal of Development and Transformation Management, 48, 127-136. [In Persian]
49. Hosmer, D.W. & Lemeshow, S (2000). Applied Logistic Regression (2nd ed.). Wiley [DOI:10.1002/0471722146]
51. Hosseini, A., & Karimi, R. (2024). Investigating the relationship between value-added tax and productivity in manufacturing industries. Iranian Economic Research Journal, 78, 14-21. [In Persian]
52. Islamic Parliament Research Center. (2020). Research Report. Islamic Parliament Research Center of Iran. [In Persian]
53. Jacobs, J. (1969)."The Economy of Cities", Vintage, New York
54. Karadag, H. (2015). The Role and Challenges of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Emerging Economies: An Analysis from Turkey, Business and Management Studies, 1(2), 179-188. [DOI:10.11114/bms.v1i2.1049]
56. Khodaei, M., Jafari, M., & Fattahi, Sh. (2018). Investigating the effects of fiscal policies on economic growth in Iran: State-space models. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 8(31), 81-94. [In Persian]
57. Koop, G. & Korobilis, D. (2011). "Forecasting Inflation using Dynamic Model Averaging". Manuscript availableat http: //personal. strath. ac. uk/gary.koop [DOI:10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00704.x]
59. Makiyan, S. N., Tavakolian, H., & Najafi Farashah, S. M. S. (2020). Investigating the effect of direct tax shocks on GDP and inflation in Iran within a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model. Financial Economics Journal, 13(49), 1-46. [In Persian]
60. Martinez-V,J; Vulovic,V; Liu,Y (2010). "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory and Economic Significance". International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series. International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University
61. http://doi.rg/10.4337/9780857933898.00009 [DOI:10.4337/9780857933898.00009]
62. Mousavi Jahromi, Y., Izadi, S. H., Razavi, M. R., & Khodadad Kashi, F. (2016). Evaluating the impact of tax exemptions under Article 132 of the Direct Tax Act on investment and firm entry into less-developed regions of the country. Tax Research Journal, 32(80), Winter 2016. [In Persian]
63. Mueller, P. (2007). Exploiting Entrepreneurial Opportunities: The Impact of Entrepreneurship on Growth, Small Business Economics, 28. 355-362. [DOI:10.1007/s11187-006-9035-9]
65. Naderi, S., & Salatin, P. (2018). Impact of value-added tax on income distribution in selected middle-income countries. Strategic and Macro Policies, 6(24), 568-595. [In Persian] [DOI:10.32598/JMSP.6.4.568]
66. Pejuyan, J. (2020). Public Sector Economics (Taxes). Jungle Publications. [In Persian]
67. Samadi, A. H., & Oujimehr, S. (2012). Factors affecting pro-cyclical fiscal policy with emphasis on oil price volatility: The case of Iran (1974-2007). Iranian Economic Studies, 9(18), 29-57. [In Persian]
68. Sedaghat Kalamarzi, H., & Mousavi, M. H. (2014). An estimation of the Laffer curve in Iran: A nonlinear approach. International Journal of Economic Studies (IJES), University of Shiraz, 3(1), 43-59. [In Persian]
69. Setayesh, H., Memarnezhad, A., Hojabr Kiani, K., & Torabi, T. (2022). Examining the impact of small and medium industrial workshops on the growth of value added in Iran's industrial sector. Financial Economics Journal, 16(59), 221-252. [In Persian]
70. Seyed Razavi, M. A. (2023). Effects of value-added tax on the financial performance of Iranian industrial firms. Tax Research Journal, 42, 81-97. [In Persian]
71. Shahnoush Foroushani, M. S., & Rajabzadeh, M. R. (2022). Pathology of tax exemptions and incentives in the Islamic Republic of Iran with an emphasis on production support. Defense Economics Quarterly, 6(22), 111-132. [In Persian]
72. Silivestru, D.R (2012). European SMEs and Economic Growth: A Firm Size Class Analysis, Economic Sciences 59(2), 143-151. [DOI:10.2478/v10316-012-0038-1]
74. Statistical Center of Iran. (n.d.). Survey results of industrial workshops with 10 or more employees. (2011-2021)
75. Terasvirta, T. (2004). "Smooth Transition Regression Modeling, in H.L¨utkepohl and M. Kratzig (eds)", Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Vol. 17. [DOI:10.1017/CBO9780511606885.007]
77. Thurik,R & Wennekers, S (2004). Points of View: Entrepreneurship, Small Business and Economic Growth, Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 11(1), 140 - 149. [DOI:10.1108/14626000410519173]
79. Wennekers, S. & Thurik, R. (1999). Linking Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth, Small Business Economics, 13(1), 27-55. [DOI:10.1023/A:1008063200484]
81. Zerouki, Sh., Melatbar Firoozjaei, F., Nasrnazad Nashli, S., & Norouzi, M. (2023). An asymmetric analysis of tax fairness and complexity on economic welfare in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 31(108), 201-250. [In Persian] [DOI:10.61186/qjerp.31.108.201]
82. Zhen.L & Zhou.X (2023). Can Direct Subsidies or Tax Incentives Improve the R&D Efficiency of the Manufacturing Industry in China?. Processes 2023, 11, 181. https://doiorg/10.3390/pr11010181
Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA
Send email to the article author

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2026 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Journal of Tax Research

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb